Each year, we review every pick that we have made since the first newsletter published in the mid 1970s to provide a transparent track record. We feature these results in both a front page write up of our monthly newsletter, as well as an Excel file for current subscribers. Below is an adapted version of the monthly newsletter's front page article from March 2023:
Reviewing the 2024 Historical Review
The stock market seems to have shed the uncertainty that characterized 2023 as markets continue to hit new highs. The Historical Review retracted slightly despite the recent market strength.
Below is an overview of the most recent Historical Review which tracks every pick we've made since 1976. If you'd like to see the raw data, current subscribers can request it by email.
Overview
To calculate total gain, we added all of the pluses and minuses to arrive at a total of 223,425, down 4,811. Below is a chart showing the totals since 2020:
Historical Review total since 2020.
Currently, 313 (43%) have prices listed higher than the price at which they were originally featured. 410 (56%) show lower prices, and two are flat. Five have no price information after merging.
Of those with higher prices, 106 are up between 1% and 99%; 124 are up between 100% and 499%; 38 are up between 500% and 999%; and 45 are up over 1,000%. This year, there were a couple more recommendations over the 1,000% mark, but the other categories were down.
As always, despite the majority of picks currently lower than their original price, most appreciated after recommendation. 93% gained at least 1% after selection as a Company of the Month, and the following chart shows how they performed:
Appreciation after recommendation.
Track Record of Top Gainers
The following are the top gainers of all time when using their highest price after recommendation:
- Semtech Corp. (SMTC), up 43,767%
- Smithfield Foods (SFD), up 25,900%*
- MICROS Systems (MCRS), up 23,348%**
Of those that are still actively trading, the following are the top gainers based on March 8, 2024's closing price:
SMTC was the top gainer last year, but dropped in share price. IPAR is about flat while WEX gained over the past twelve months.
Looking at more recent picks, the following are the top gainers picked in the past ten years:
- Smith-Midland Corp. (SMID), up 1,284%
- Electromed, Inc. (ELMD), up 948%
- Aehr Test Systems (AEHR), up 733%
AEHR is the only carry over from last year. DLH Holdings (DLHC) dropped off because it was Company of the Month over ten years ago, and Leatt Corp. (LEAT) dropped since last year.
Track Record of Companies No Longer Trading
There are 517 companies no longer trading actively for one reason or another. The following list shows the reasons companies are no longer trading and the number of companies that fall within each category:
- Acquired, bought out, privatized or tendered - 190
- Bankrupt - 35
- Liquidated - 4
- Merged - 98
- Lack of information - 189
- Spun off - 1
Two companies were acquired in the past year. Those two companies and the premiums at which they were acquired are:
- Wireless Telecomm (WTT), -9%
- Trean Insurance (TIG), 120%
The chart below shows the premiums at which the companies were acquired, bought out, merged, privatized, spun off or tendered:
Acquisition premiums.
Track Record of Recent Additions
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Lessons Learned
The point of reflecting on past results is to learn how to be a better investor. Here are the takeaways based on this year's Historical Review:
- The Bowser Ratings System yields good companies: about 2/3 of our picks double in time;
- The Bowser Game Plan maximizes results: most picks are down NOW, but were once trading higher. Selling in accordance with the plan locks in profits;
- Patience is key: Buy the right companies, stick to the plan and the profits will come.
Here's to another year of picking profitable stocks and giving them time to appreciate!
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